Armenia has experienced population decline since the USSR was broken up, but the decline leveled out between 2008-2010. Based on the medium variant of the UN projections, the population will be nearly 3 million in 2020.
Armenia Population Growth
The annual growth rate of the population in Armenia has been wavering on both sides of zero since the turn of the century, gaining numbers just to lose some a few years later leading to little overall change. As of 2019, the population was close to a standstill growing at just 0.09% a year. Net migration is relatively low, yet negative, and the largest contributing factor to the low amount has been the below-average birth rate of 1.61 children being born to the average Armenian woman. The birth rate was even lower in the 1990s, meaning that there are not many people around child-bearing age around at present. That in combination with socio-economic factors have not inspired people to start large families.
Armenia Population Projections
The decrease in the annual growth rate of Armenia is expected to continue in the coming years, beginning to see a decrease in numbers as soon as the year 2024. Current projections go out to the year 2050 and believe that the net migration will regularly be at least -5,000 annually and the birth rate will remain below the worldwide average, staying close to 1.51, which is not conducive to growth. If these factors remain as expected, the annual growth rate should get down to -0.47% by 2050, and the population of Armenia will be roughly 2,938,679 in 2020, 2,907,463 in 2030, 2,818,399 in 2040 and 2,600,184 by 2050.