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Bellwether States 2021

Ohio

The State of Ohio has historically been a bellwether state and continues to hold that status. Ohio, in fact, hasn't only been a bellwether state once, but three times only failing to correctly predict the Presidential election winner three times (1944, 1960, 2020). Ohio also holds the highest bellwether percentage at just under 91%, in addition to being home to more US Presidents than any other state.

Nevada

The only other state of all the bellwether states to rival Ohio's impressive record is Nevada. Also, like Ohio, this bellwether state has only had three misses (1908, 1976, 2016) and also owns an identical 90.9% bellwether percentage.

Coming in with an identical 27 of 32 elections correctly called, Nevada joins Illinois as another state worthy of the country's bellwether states signification. And in a state that is the home of the world's gambling capital, that's a percentage you could live with.

New Mexico

Another one of the bellwether states in the same rarified air as Ohio and Nevada, is the bellwether state of New Mexico. With an overall 89% bellwether percentage, New Mexico has also missed correctly calling the election twice in recent history, in 2000 and 2016.

Florida

With an overall percentage of 87%, Florida is another one of the most reliable bellwether states, and near the top of the list. Only recent stumbles in 1992 and 2020 prevent Florida from an even more impressive bellwether status.

Illinois

With the bellwether state of Illinois hitting on 27 out of 32 elections (84.4%), this makes Illinois worthy of consideration as one of the country's bellwether states. And it doesn't hurt that this the land of Lincoln either.

Colorado

The mountain high state of Colorado is also high on the list of bellwether states. Colorado voters have been able to clearly see and predict the Presidential winner more than 80% of the time.

New Hampshire

With a respectable 81% of the time, the state of New Hampshire has been right, and that earns at least some consideration for being on the list of bellwether states. New Hampshire is also proof that bellwethers can come in all sizes.

Pennsylvania

Rounding out the list of the country's top bellwether states is Pennsylvania. The state of Pennsylvania has been a reliable bellwether state 81% of the time, and would have an even better showing if it wasn't for back-to-back election stumbles in 2000 and 2004. It also seems appropriate to round out the list of the top bellwether states with Pennsylvania, as few states are so deeply rooted in the country's political system as this historic and original member of the Union.

Bellwether States 2021

State 2021 Pop.
Colorado5,893,634
Florida21,944,577
Illinois12,569,321
Nevada3,185,786
New Hampshire1,372,203
New Mexico2,105,005
Ohio11,714,618
Pennsylvania12,804,123

Bellwether States 2021