According to current projections, Papua New Guinea’s population, which is currently at 8.95 million people, will continue to grow throughout the rest of the 21st century. By 2050, the population will be 14.2 million people. By 2100, the population will be at 19.78 million people.
Papua New Guinea’s population growth rate from 2019 to 2020 was 1.95%. The country’s fertility rate is 3.59 births per woman, which is relatively high and is far above the population replacement rate of 2.1 births.
Papua New Guinea’s population growth poses a threat to the country’s infrastructure, hospitals, education systems, and economy, which are already challenges for the island nation.
Papua New Guinea Population Growth
The growth rate in Papua New Guinea has been slowing in recent years, but the country still has what is known as a "youth bulge," meaning there is a disproportionately high number of young people not yet old enough to work and help support the rest of the people. The current growth rate sits around 2% annual growth, which would be a more manageable number if there were more immigrants as opposed to new children being born.
Papua New Guinea Population Projections
The population of Papua New Guinea has been gradually slowing or many years and that is expected to continue in the years to come. Current projections believe that the annual population rate will hit a temporary peak in 2020 at 2.03% before declining nearly a full percentage point over the next 30 years. These same predictions say that the population of Papua New Guinea will be 8,755,675 in 2020, 10,486,891 in 2030, 12,224,302 in 2040, and 13,871,403 by 2050.