Stage 4 Demographic Transition Model (DTM) Countries 2025

Starting at the end of the 18th century, death rates declined for the first time in history. A combination of new technology in agriculture led to a better diet, sustainable food sources, and increased sanitation among the population. Throughout the next 300 years, populations have changed significantly, growing and shrinking as external factors contribute to changing population dynamics. To model the population trends of particular countries and geographical regions, scientists have created a model known as the Demographic Transition Model, often abbreviated to DTM. This model can help clarify changing population growth throughout the world, allowing societies to make better-informed decisions about their current population trend and what may impact population growth or decline.

The Demographic Transition Model consists of five different stages that monitor the number of deaths and births within the county and how the deaths and births are related to other ongoing social, economic, and political factors. Understanding overall contributions to population changes can influence economic and political changes in the future.

What is Stage 4 DTM?

There are five different stages within the Demographic Transition Model, marking changes in population growth and decline. In Stage 4 DTM, both birth rates and death rates are low, which results in stable population growth. Usually, lower death rates are connected with a more robust economy and a better health system. Compared to rural or agricultural settlements, citizens in Stage 4 DTM countries usually have higher education and tend to move to larger urban communities in the cities.

Another mainstay of Stage 4 DTM is the growth and opportunity of women. In Stage 4 DTM populations, women have better access to education opportunities, better healthcare, and a better understanding of contraception use. Usually, in Stage 4, birth rates will decline to a replacement level of about 2.1 births per woman until the country or region enters Stage 5 DTM. In Stage 4, better economic and social opportunities usually lead to a smaller family size than just decades prior.

What Countries are in Stage 4 DTM?

Generally speaking, countries that have progressed to Stage 4 DTM have large populations. The larger population is usually the result of the country moving through the first three stages, resulting in population growth, albeit slow at times. Larger population growth can be sustained with the natural increase in births and a decrease in deaths. Stage 4 is largely considered ideal because population growth is slow, stable, and manageable, allowing economic and social aspects of society to adjust and change over time. Today, some countries that are considered Stage 4 DTM include China, Argentina, Canada, Australia, Brazil, Singapore, South Korea, the United States, and most countries within Europe.