Stage 5 Demographic Transition Model (DTM) Countries 2026

DTM is the abbreviated form of the Demographic Transition Model. Scientists designed this model to better classify population trends over time as they relate to the number of births and deaths within a society or country. The DTM model looks at various external forces as well as social, economic, and political forces at play to classify populations within one of five stages. Countries progress through stages as populations change over time. Often, observing a particular country’s stage within the Demographic Transition Model can better help understand the economic and social stability of the country. Higher stage countries generally have more stable population growth and thus a better social and economic platform to sustain and support the population.

Stage 5 DTM Defined

In a country classified as Stage 5 in the DTM model, the population is usually high, but there are signs of a declining population. Usually, the birth rate falls quickly in these countries and cannot keep up with the number of deaths.

In some rare cases, a negative population growth rate does not determine stage 5 DTM. In many countries in Europe, the birth rate is not enough to keep up with the death rate. However, the population continues to increase year after year. In this case, demographic changes usually result from immigration to a particular country, which is not accommodated in the DTM model. In these countries where immigration is temporarily increasing the population, it will take two to three generations before the actual decline in population as a result of low birth rates is shown in population demographics.

Stage 5 population decline due to low birth rate is often related to better employment opportunities that may limit a woman’s childbearing years or better education that can be connected to smaller family size. Other times, lower birth rates can result from a country enforcing child-producing limitations to help manage a growing population.

Stage 5 DTM Countries

Many countries have come to the point where their birth rate cannot keep up with the number of deaths. However, their population is inflated by many adults moving to the country. Although the Demographic Transition Model does not account for migration, countries with net immigration may still be classified as Stage 5 if natural population change is negative. Countries that have been included with Stage 5 DTM numbers are predominantly located in Southern and Eastern Europe. Examples include Croatia, Ukraine, Spain, Portugal, Germany, and Japan.