Stage 3 Demographic Transition Model (DTM) Countries 2025

DTM is an abbreviation for a model called the Demographic Transition Model. This model is commonly used to show the global phenomenon of changing and evolving demographics within a population. By using the Demographic Transition Model, scientists are able to better predict a country or region’s population growth or decline. The Demographic Transition model includes five different stages, representing a change in births and deaths as a percentage of the larger population. Although DTM is commonly used for geographic population estimates, its data can also be applied to changing social and economic trends throughout a region better to anticipate the needs of countries and their populations.

What Is Stage 3 DTM?

Stage 3 is a stage within the DTM model that exhibits low death and birth rates related to improving economic conditions. Lower birth rates are related to an increase in a woman’s status as education and access to birth control increase. Declines in birth rates between countries can vary, with some countries plummeting in a rapid transition while others are slow to decline. In some models, women’s access to contraception shows a 40% decline in birth rates in measured countries. Even though birth rates are low, death rates also decrease during Stage 3. During this stage, the population will continue to grow, albeit slowly. During this stage, the average birth rate is 2.1 children per woman, which is necessary to sustain a slowly growing total population.

In Stage 3, women usually tend to pursue higher-level education, which can shorten the childbearing years and increase the level of education for women. Research shows that women who achieve a higher level of education usually favor a smaller family or decide never to have children. Smaller family size is usually linked to countries with a higher standard of education, particularly advanced education. In many ways, a country transitioning from Stage 2 DTM to Stage 3 DTM fully depends on women and their access to better education and healthcare related to women’s reproductive systems.

What Countries are Stage 3 DTM?

Stage 3 DTM is measured by stability in the overall population’s economic, political, and social aspects. These countries will show stable population growth, although sometimes slower than other countries. Stage 3 offers plenty of opportunities for the population to create a strong economy, with many able citizens of working age to contribute to society’s overall goals. Modern countries currently in Stage 3 include Columbia, India, Jamaica, Botswana, Mexico, Kenya, South Africa, and the UAE.