World War 3 Countries 2025

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World War 3 Chance of Participation

High

Low

Medium

World War 3 Chance of Participation

24
24
22
Country
World War 3 Chance of Participation
Most Likely Inciding Incident
ChinaHigh
  • Hybrid War (2024, USA)
  • Regional Tensions (US, PHL, IND, TWN)
  • East China Sea Claims
  • South China Sea Claims
  • Trade War (2018–present, US)
  • Maritime Clashes (PHI)
  • Strategic Stockpiling
United StatesHigh
  • Hybrid War (2024, RUS, CHN)
  • Red Sea Shipping (Houthis, IRN)
  • Yemen Intervention (2002–present)
  • Proxy Wars (RUS, IRN)
  • Syrian Civil War (2014–present)
  • Somali Civil War (2007–present)
  • Trade War (2018–present, CHN)
  • ISIS-K Threat (2015–present)
PakistanHigh
  • ISIS Threat (2021–present)
  • ISIS-K (2015–present)
  • al-Qaeda Threat (2021–present)
  • Pakistan Taliban (2007–present)
  • Balochistan Insurgency (1948–present)
NigeriaHigh
  • ISIL Insurgency (2014–present)
  • Separatist Militancy (ongoing)
  • Mali Conflict (2014–present)
  • War on Terror (2009–present)
  • Somali Civil War (2009–present)
  • Bakassi Border Conflict (2009–present)
  • Niger Delta Conflict (2003–present)
  • Maghreb Insurgency (2002–present)
  • Economic Crisis
RussiaHigh
  • Hybrid War (USA, 2024)
  • Russo-Ukraine War (2014–present)
  • Kursk Invasion (2024, UKR)
  • Burkina Faso (2024–present)
  • Mali War (2021–present)
  • CAR Civil War (2018–present)
  • Syrian Civil War (2018–present)
  • ISIS-K Threat (2015–present)
IranHigh
  • Active / Proxy War (ISR, US)
  • Iraq Insurgency (2017–present)
  • Western Insurgency (2016–present)
  • ISIS-K Threat (2015–present)
  • Yemeni Civil War (2014–present)
  • Bahrain Insurgency (2011–present)
  • Syrian Civil War (2011–present)
TurkeyHigh
  • Kurdish-Turkish Conflict (1978-present)
  • Aegean Dispute (1987, 96-present, GRE)
  • Mali War (2014-present)
  • Syrian Civil War (2011-present)
  • Boko Haram Insurgency (2009-present)
MyanmarHigh
  • Civil War (2021–present)
  • Military Government (2021)
  • Economic Crisis
  • Internal Unrest
  • Internal Security
  • Ethnic Tensions
SudanHigh
  • Civil War (2023-present)
  • Military Government (2021)
  • Economic Crisis
  • Humanitarian Crisis
IraqHigh
  • ISIL Insurgency (2017-present)
  • Independent Paramilitaries
  • Economic Challenges
  • Internal Unrest
  • Internal Security
  • Regional Threat (IRN)
AfghanistanHigh
  • Taliban rule (2021-Present)
  • Al-Qaeda training grounds
  • ISIS-K threat (2015 - present)
  • Regional instability
  • Internal unrest
YemenHigh
  • Civil War (2014-present)
  • Houthi Rebel Attacks (2023-present)
  • Red Sea Crisis (2023-present)
  • Internal Security
  • Internal Instability
  • Political Unrest
UkraineHigh
  • Active War (RUS)
  • War in Donbas (2014-present)
  • Martial War (2022-present) Russia-EU Oil/Gas Conduit
  • Border Tension (BLR)
NigerHigh
  • Instability (2023-present)
  • Boko Haram Insurgency (2009-present)
  • Maghreb Insurgency (2002-present)
  • Military Government (2023)
  • Political Unrest
  • Internal Unrest
  • Internal Security
  • Economic Crisis
North KoreaHigh
  • Russo-Ukrainian War (2024–present)
  • Border Clashes (1953–present, SKO)
  • Regional Tensions (SKO, US, JPN)
SyriaHigh
  • Civil War (2011–present)
  • Regional Instability (ISR, LEB, IRN, IRQ)
  • Internal Instability
  • Internal Security
MaliHigh
  • Jihadist Insurgency (2012–present)
  • Mali War (2012–present)
  • Military Government (2020)
  • Economic Crisis
  • Internal Security
Burkina FasoHigh
  • Jihadist Insurgency (2015–present)
  • Regional Security
  • Internal Security
  • Economic Challenges
TaiwanHigh
  • Regional Threat (CHN)
  • Invasion Threat (CHN)
ChadHigh
  • N. Chad Insurgency (2016–present)
  • Mali Intervention (2013–present)
  • Boko Haram Insurgency (2009–present)
  • Military Government (2021–present)
  • Internal Security
SomaliaHigh
  • ISIL Insurgency (2015–present)
  • al-Shabaab Insurgency (2006–present)
  • al-Qaeda Insurgency (1991–present)
  • Somali Civil War (1981–present)
  • Internal Security
  • Internal Unrest
  • Economic Crisis
BoliviaHigh
  • Attempted Coup (2024)
  • Internal Unrest
  • Political Unrest
  • Economic Unrest
IsraelHigh
  • Active War (Hamas, Gaza, IRN)
  • Active War (Hezbollah, LEB)
  • Houthi Drone Threat (YEM)
  • Hamas Threat (Gaza)
  • Hezbollah Threat (LEB)
LebanonHigh
  • Border War (ISR)
  • Total War Threat (ISR)
  • Regional Instability
  • Hezbollah Influence
BrazilLow
  • Internal Insecurity
  • Criminal Organizations
MexicoLow
  • Drug War (2006–present)
JapanLow
  • Regional Tension (CHN, NKO, RUS)
  • East China Sea Claims
VietnamLow
  • South China Sea Claims
  • Maritime Disputes (CHN)
South AfricaLow
  • S. Delgrado Insurgency (2021-present)
  • ADF Insurgency (2014-present)
ItalyLow
  • Migrant Crisis
  • Operation Aspides (2024–present)
  • Operation Prosperity Garden (2023–present)
SpainLow
  • ISIL Intervention (2014–present)
  • Somali Anti-Piracy (2008–present)
AlgeriaLow
  • Maghreb Insurgency (2002–present)
  • Western Sahara Dispute (1975–present, MOR)
CanadaLow
  • Red Sea Crisis (2023–present)
  • ISIL Intervention (2014–present)
  • Trade War (2018-present, CHN)
AustraliaLow
  • Iraq Insurgency (2017–present)
  • ISIL Insurgency (2014–present)
Sri LankaLow
  • Red Sea Shipping (2023–present, YEM)
RomaniaLow
  • NATO Frontline
NetherlandsLow
  • Migrant Crisis
SwedenLow
  • Preparedness Issued
  • Regional Threat (RUS)
HungaryLow
  • Economic Challenges
  • Russian Oil Halt (2024, UKR)
BelarusLow
  • Russo-Ukrainian War (2022–present)
SwitzerlandLow
  • Regional Instability (UKR, RUS)
SerbiaLow
  • Strategic Stockpiling
  • Ethnic Tensions
LiberiaLow
  • Political Unrest
  • Internal Security
  • Economic Challenges
SlovakiaLow
  • War on Terror (2001–present)
  • Regional Tension (RUS)
MoldovaLow
  • Regional Insecurity (UKR, RUS)
AlbaniaLow
  • Migrant Crisis
SloveniaLow
  • Regional Tension (RUS)
EstoniaLow
  • Northern Mali (2018–present)
  • War on Terror (2003–present)
BangladeshMedium
  • al-Qaeda Resurgence (2023–present)
  • Interim Government (2024)
  • Civil Unrest
  • Internal Unrest
  • Economic Crisis
  • Political Unrest
EthiopiaMedium
  • al-Shabaab Insurgency (2006–present)
  • War in Amhara (2023-present)
  • Ethiopia-Sudan Crisis (2020-present)
  • OLA Insurgency (2018-present)
  • Economic Crisis
  • Internal Security
EgyptMedium
  • Red Sea Crisis (2023–present)
  • Regional Tensions (ISR, LBN, LBY)
PhilippinesMedium
  • ISIL Insurgency (2014–present)
  • Moro Insurgency (1969–present)
  • Regional Tension (CHN)
  • South China Sea Claims
GermanyMedium
  • Preparedness Issued
  • War on ISIL (2015-present)
United KingdomMedium
  • Preparedness Issued
  • Red Sea Shipping (2023–present)
  • ISIL Intervention (2014–present)
FranceMedium
  • Yemen Intervention (2015–present)
  • ISIL Intervention (2014–present)
KenyaMedium
  • Haiti Intervention (2024, UN)
  • Internal Unrest
  • Political Unrest
  • Economic Challenges
  • War in Somalia (2011–present)
South KoreaMedium
  • Border Clashes (1953–present, NKO)
  • Regional Threats (NKO, CHN)
MoroccoMedium
  • Western Sahara (2020–present)
  • Western Sahara Dispute (1975–present, ALG)
  • CAR Civil War (2013–present)
  • Maghreb Insurgency (2002–present)
PolandMedium
  • War on Terror (2001–present)
  • Troop Movements (2024, BLR)
  • Fortification Initiative
Saudi ArabiaMedium
  • Yemen Intervention (2015–present)
  • Houthi Threat (2023–present)
  • War on ISIS (2014–present)
  • Syrian Civil War (2014–present)
  • Regional Instability (IRQ, YEM)
VenezuelaMedium
  • Political Unrest
  • Border Tensions (GUY)
  • Economic Challenges
  • Civil Unrest
  • Internal Unrest
EcuadorMedium
  • Organised Crime (2024–present)
  • Economic Challenges
  • Internal Security
  • Political Unrest
JordanMedium
  • Yemen Intervention (2015–present)
  • ISIS Intervention (2014–present)
  • Regional Tensions (ISR, IRN, LEB, SYR, IRQ)
LibyaMedium
  • Libyan Crisis (2011–present)
  • Internal Instability
  • Internal Security
  • Political Instability
DenmarkMedium
  • Preparedness Issued
  • Red Sea Crisis (2023–present, YEM)
  • ISIL Intervention (2014–present)
  • South Sudan Intervention (2011-present)
FinlandMedium
  • Preparedness Issued
  • Regional Threat (RUS)
  • NATO Frontline
GeorgiaMedium
  • Political Tensions
  • Internal Unrest
  • Civil Unrest
  • Border Tensions (RUS)
LithuaniaMedium
  • War in Ukraine (2023-present)
  • Preparedness Issued
  • Border Threats (BLR, RUS)
  • Regional Threats (BLR, RUS)
LatviaMedium
  • Preparedness Issued
  • Border Threats (BLR, RUS)
  • Regional Instability (RUS-UKR)
  • Economic Challenges
  • NATO Frontline
BahrainMedium
  • Yemen Intervention (2015–present)
  • ISIL Intervention (2014–present)
  • World War 3 Chance of Participation (Total War Index from Global Firepower) assesses global geopolitical risks by factoring in military conflicts, economic relationships, regional disputes, and historical patterns. It gauges the potential for large-scale conflict based on current instability, military actions, and alliances across various regions, using data both historical and contemporary to predict the likelihood of significant warfare