Countries With Declining Population 2021

Hover overClick on a tile for details.
Population

Population decline, also known as depopulation, is a reduction in a human population caused by events such as long-term demographic trends. Population decline can be caused by one or a combination of these trends, including aging, emigration, fertility rates below the population replacement rate, and high death rates due to violence, disease, or other catastrophes.

Population decline has both positive and negative impacts on a nation. A shrinking population can mean more resources can be allocated to the population and per capita wealth could increase. Additionally, a declining population alleviates the problems associated with overpopulation in areas affected by it, such as increased pollution, traffic, real estate and rent prices, and environmental degradation. Population decline, however, can also lead to an aging population if fewer babies are being born, subsequently leading to a shrinking workforce, especially highly-educated, high-skilled workers.

Due to varying demographic challenges around the world, many countries are facing shrinking populations. The United Nations publishes demographic projections regularly, allowing Business Insider to study the fertility, mortality, and international migration projections to determine the 20 countries projected to have the largest percentage population declines over the next three decades (2020-2050).

1. Bulgaria

Bulgaria’s population is expected to decline by 22.5% from 6.9 million in 2020 to 5.4 million in 2050. Mass outbound migration is the largest contributor towards Bulgaria’s population decline.

2. Lithuania

The Lithuanian population is projected to shrink by 22.1% over the next three decades. The population is expected to shrink from 2.7 million to 2.1 million people. Like Bulgaria, Lithuania’s largest population loss is due to mass migration.

3. Latvia

Latvia is expecting a 21.6% population loss between 2020 and 2050. Latvia has lost about one-fifth of its population since joining the European Union in May 2004. Latvia’s population loss is caused by economic migration and low birth rates.

4. Ukraine

Ukraine’s population is projected to drop from 43.7 million in 2020 to 35.2 million in 2050, a 19.5% loss. High emigration rates coupled with high death rates and low birth rates are to blame for Ukraine’s population loss. The country’s birth rate is 9.2 births per 1,000 people and its death rate is 15.2 deaths per 1,000 people.

5. Serbia

The Serbian population is expected to decline from 8.7 million to 7.1 million over the next 30 years. This is a decline of about 18.9%. Many of Serbia’s highly educated and skilled workers have left the country to find better job opportunities since there are very few in Serbia. The high migration rates are coupled with low fertility rates.

6. Bosnia and Herzegovina

The population is projected to decline by 18.2%, shrinking from 3.3 million in 2020 to 2.7 million in 2050. Bosnia and Herzegovina’s fertility rate is well below the population replacement rate of 2.1 births per woman at 1.26 births per woman.

7. Croatia

Croatia’s population is expected to shrink by 18.0%. The population is projected to drop from 4.1 million to 3.4 million over the next 30 years. The population reached its peak in 1991 at 4.78 million but has been declining since because of low birth rates and an aging population.

8. Moldova

Moldova’s population will decline by 16.7% from 2020 to 2050. The population is expected to fall by 600,000 from 4 million to 3.4 million. Poverty and corruption in Moldova have pushed the highly-skilled, young workers away from the country and the aging population has been plagued by poor living standards and high mortality rates.

9. Japan

Japan’s population is projected to lose 20.7 million people between 2020 and 2050. The population is expected to shrink from 126.5 million to 105.8 million, a 16.3% decline. Japan’s population has been falling since 2011 due to very low fertility rates (1.42 births per woman) and an aging population.

10. Albania

The Albanian population is expected to decrease by 15.8% over the next 30 years, falling from 2.9 million people to 2.4 million people. It is estimated that over 38% of the Albanian population lives abroad.

11. Romania

Romania’s population is projected to decline by 15.5% from 2020 to 2050. The population will reduce from 19.2 million to 16.3 million over the next three decades. Between 2007 and 2015, about 3.5 million Romanians have gone abroad to escape poverty and widespread corruption.

12. Greece

The population of Greece is expected to shrink from 10.4 million to 9.0 million, 1 13.4% over the next 30 years. Greece’s population began declining in 2011 when the first negative birth rate was recorded. Greece’s population could decline up to 50% over the next 50 years if nothing is done to combat it.

13. Estonia

Estonia’s population of 1.3 million is projected to decline by 12.7% to 1.2 million by 2050. Compared to other Baltic states, Estonia’s population decline has been relatively slow and stable. Immigration has delayed a quicker population decline in recent years.

14. Hungary

Hungary’s population is projected to drop from 9.7 million in 2020 to 8.5 million in 2050. This is a population decline of about 12.3%. Hungary’s population has fallen by about over 40,000 per year and shows no signs of slowing down. Policies Hungary to help slow the population decline are focused on boosting birthrates.

15. Poland

Poland’s population is predicted to drop by 12.0%. Over the next 30 years, the population will drop from 37.8 million to 33.3 million people. Low birth rates and continued emigration are the two main reasons for Poland’s population decline.

16. Georgia

The population is expected to decline by 11.8%, shrinking from 4.0 million to 3.5 million from 2020 to 2050. The decline in Georgia’s population is caused by the emigration in search of better jobs in other countries.

17. Portugal

The Portuguese population is projected to decline from 10.2 million to 9.1 million over the next three decades, a 10.9% decline. Portugal has made attempts to lure back those who emigrated, whether or not they are highly paid or highly skilled.

18. North Macedonia

North Macedonia’s population is expected to drop by 10.9%, shrinking from 2.1 million to 1.9 million from 2020 to 2050. North Macedonia’s population has fallen by 24.6% since its independence in 1991.

19. Cuba

Cuba’s population of 11.3 million is expected to shrink to 10.2 million by 2050, a 10.3% decline. The young people leaving the country and low birth rates are resulting in an increasingly aging population. Cuba’s population is expected to be the ninth-oldest in the world by 2050.

20. Italy

Italy’s population is projected to shrinking by 10.1% from 2020 to 2050. The current population of 60.5 million people will reduce to 54.4 million over the next 30 years. Births are at an all-time low since the unification of Italy and young people are leaving Italy to other European countries for job opportunities.

Countries With Declining Population 2021

Rank Country 2021 Population
1China1,444,216,107
2India1,393,409,038
3United States332,915,073
4Indonesia276,361,783
5Pakistan225,199,937
6Brazil213,993,437
7Nigeria211,400,708
8Bangladesh166,303,498
9Russia145,912,025
10Mexico130,262,216
11Japan126,050,804
12Ethiopia117,876,227
13Philippines111,046,913
14Egypt104,258,327
15Vietnam98,168,833
16Dr Congo92,377,993
17Turkey85,042,738
18Iran85,028,759
19Germany83,900,473
20Thailand69,950,850
21United Kingdom68,207,116
22France65,426,179
23Tanzania61,498,437
24Italy60,367,477
25South Africa60,041,994
26Kenya54,985,698
27Myanmar54,806,012
28South Korea51,305,186
29Colombia51,265,844
30Uganda47,123,531
31Spain46,745,216
32Argentina45,605,826
33Sudan44,909,353
34Algeria44,616,624
35Ukraine43,466,819
36Iraq41,179,350
37Afghanistan39,835,428
38Canada38,067,903
39Poland37,797,005
40Morocco37,344,795
41Saudi Arabia35,340,683
42Uzbekistan33,935,763
43Angola33,933,610
44Peru33,359,418
45Malaysia32,776,194
46Mozambique32,163,047
47Ghana31,732,129
48Yemen30,490,640
49Nepal29,674,920
50Venezuela28,704,954
51Madagascar28,427,328
52Cameroon27,224,265
53Ivory Coast27,053,629
54North Korea25,887,041
55Australia25,788,215
56Niger25,130,817
57Taiwan23,855,010
58Sri Lanka21,497,310
59Burkina Faso21,497,096
60Mali20,855,735
61Malawi19,647,684
62Chile19,212,361
63Romania19,127,774
64Kazakhstan18,994,962
65Zambia18,920,651
66Syria18,275,702
67Guatemala18,249,860
68Ecuador17,888,475
69Senegal17,196,301
70Netherlands17,173,099
71Cambodia16,946,438
72Chad16,914,985
73Somalia16,359,504
74Zimbabwe15,092,171
75Guinea13,497,244
76Rwanda13,276,513
77Benin12,451,040
78Burundi12,255,433
79Tunisia11,935,766
80Bolivia11,832,940
81Belgium11,632,326
82Haiti11,541,685
83South Sudan11,381,378
84Cuba11,317,505
85Dominican Republic10,953,703
86Czech Republic10,724,555
87Greece10,370,744
88Jordan10,269,021
89Azerbaijan10,223,342
90Portugal10,167,925
91Sweden10,160,169
92Honduras10,062,991
93United Arab Emirates9,991,089
94Tajikistan9,749,627
95Hungary9,634,164
96Belarus9,442,862
97Papua New Guinea9,119,010
98Austria9,043,070
99Israel8,789,774
100Switzerland8,715,494
101Serbia8,697,550
102Togo8,478,250
103Sierra Leone8,141,343
104Hong Kong7,552,810
105Laos7,379,358
106Paraguay7,219,638
107Libya6,958,532
108Bulgaria6,896,663
109Lebanon6,769,146
110Nicaragua6,702,385
111Kyrgyzstan6,628,356
112El Salvador6,518,499
113Turkmenistan6,117,924
114Singapore5,896,686
115Denmark5,813,298
116Republic Of The Congo5,657,013
117Finland5,548,360
118Norway5,465,630
119Slovakia5,460,721
120Oman5,223,375
121Palestine5,222,748
122Liberia5,180,203
123Costa Rica5,139,052
124Ireland4,982,907
125Central African Republic4,919,981
126New Zealand4,860,643
127Mauritania4,775,119
128Panama4,381,579
129Kuwait4,328,550
130Croatia4,081,651
131Moldova4,024,019
132Georgia3,979,765
133Eritrea3,601,467
134Uruguay3,485,151
135Mongolia3,329,289
136Bosnia And Herzegovina3,263,466
137Jamaica2,973,463
138Armenia2,968,127
139Qatar2,930,528
140Albania2,872,933
141Puerto Rico2,828,255
142Lithuania2,689,862
143Namibia2,587,344
144Gambia2,486,945
145Botswana2,397,241
146Gabon2,278,825
147Lesotho2,159,079
148North Macedonia2,082,658
149Slovenia2,078,724
150Guinea Bissau2,015,494
151Latvia1,866,942
152Bahrain1,748,296
153Equatorial Guinea1,449,896
154Trinidad And Tobago1,403,375
155Timor Leste1,343,873
156Estonia1,325,185
157Mauritius1,273,433
158Cyprus1,215,584
159Eswatini1,172,362
160Djibouti1,002,187
161Fiji902,906
162Reunion901,686
163Comoros888,451
164Guyana790,326
165Bhutan779,898
166Solomon Islands703,996
167Macau658,394
168Luxembourg634,814
169Montenegro628,053
170Western Sahara611,875
171Suriname591,800
172Cape Verde561,898
173Maldives543,617
174Malta442,784
175Brunei441,532
176Belize404,914
177Guadeloupe400,020
178Bahamas396,913
179Martinique374,745
180Iceland343,353
181Vanuatu314,464
182French Guiana306,448
183New Caledonia288,218
184Barbados287,711
185French Polynesia282,530
186Mayotte279,515
187Sao Tome And Principe223,368
188Samoa200,149
189Saint Lucia184,400
190Guam170,179
191Curacao164,798
192Kiribati121,392
193Micronesia116,254
194Grenada113,021
195Saint Vincent And The Grenadines111,263
196Aruba107,204
197Tonga106,760
198United States Virgin Islands104,226
199Seychelles98,908
200Antigua And Barbuda98,731
201Isle Of Man85,410
202Andorra77,355
203Dominica72,167
204Cayman Islands66,497
205Bermuda62,090
206Marshall Islands59,610
207Northern Mariana Islands57,917
208Greenland56,877
209American Samoa55,100
210Saint Kitts And Nevis53,544
211Faroe Islands49,049
212Sint Maarten43,412
213Monaco39,511
214Saint Martin39,234
215Turks And Caicos Islands39,231
216Liechtenstein38,250
217San Marino34,017
218Gibraltar33,698
219British Virgin Islands30,421
220Palau18,169
221Cook Islands17,565
222Anguilla15,117
223Tuvalu11,931
224Wallis And Futuna11,094
225Nauru10,876
226Saint Barthelemy9,907
227Saint Pierre And Miquelon5,766
228Montserrat4,977
229Falkland Islands3,533
230Niue1,619
231Tokelau1,373
232Vatican City800

Countries With Declining Population 2021