How Long Does a Country Last?

How long do countries usually last? While this is a good question, it also isn’t one that is typically tracked by any particular group or organization. Based on most reports and those who have done the research, the average country will survive approximately 150 years.

How Old is the United States?

If you are wondering, since the United States of America established its independence in 1776, it means it will be soon approaching its 250th year. What makes this interesting is that the average length of most empires, is 250 years.

The Oldest and Youngest Countries

That is a very short period of time, however, compared to the oldest country in the world, Japan. So, how old is Japan? This ancient country is dated to be about 2,673 years old. What Japan might refer to as its independence day, “National Foundation Day,” is recorded as 660 BC.

Compare that to the youngest country in the world, South Sudan, which is about 14 years old, and it makes it easy to see why it might be difficult to ascertain just how long countries usually last.

There are many countries, especially throughout Europe that are around 50 years old. Many of these are the result of the fall of the British Empire, which led to its decolonization. Many of these countries, had they not been under British rule, would be around the same age as Italy, which is around 170 years old.

Predicting a Country’s Lifespan

How long do countries last? There are many variables and an unfathomable amount of factors that could play a role in the lifespan of a country. History has shown that natural catastrophes can wreck a small country. We have witnessed countries fall to invasion, and others collapse from poor infrastructure.

There is also the unpredictable variable of people, and in particular the leadership they provide. We have seen dictators nearly take over the world, only to be conquered and fall. We have seen the reign of family and royalty, as it continues to get passed on from generation to generation.

The short answer is, that there is no definitive way to determine how long any country might last, and even the averages must account for countries like Japan that have existed since the beginning of time.

No, there is no way to know how long a country should normally last. The good news is there is enough evidence and history to show us that the answer may be, as long as we want it to.

At least one source calculates how long a country lasts on average to be 158 years. Most sources base figures on “empire” rather than country, which is 250 years.

Differences Between Countries and Empires

“Modern nation-states are ruled in the name of a nationally defined people, in contrast to empires, which govern to spread a faith across the world, to bring civilization to backward people, or to advance the world revolutionary cause,” says Andreas Wimmer and Brian Min, authors of “From Empire to Nation-State: Explaining Wars in the Modern World, 1816-2001.” (Quote is taken from the journal article’s abstract.)

Countries usually govern persons within specific borders. They typically don’t seek to expand their regime to the rest of the world (at least not currently), although they usually involve themselves with international relations if developed enough.

Empires usually strive to spread their agenda to everywhere else on the planet, which may explain why so many empires haven’t lasted. The word “empire” oftentimes connotates a hostile takeover. That’s what often occurs during the conquest stages of the five to seven steps of an empire’s lifecycle before peaceful commerce development that almost always ends in a decline. War doesn’t always occur as an empire grows, but it often does.

The Basis for the 158-Year Country Life Cycle Figure

“The 158-year-old average shouldn’t be misconstrued as some prophetic measure for a country’s life expectancy,” says Vice contributor Daniel Stuckey.

This research seems slightly arbitrary, but Stucky did retrieve independence dates as one way to measure how long countries existed.

2022 Age of Oldest Modern Democracies (Top 5)

Most of the world’s most notable democracies lasted 50 years or less. These five that have lasted the longest so far.

1. The United States

The United States became 247 years old (and counting) from the first Declaration of Independence on July 04, 1776, to July 04, 2023. The true age of the country is arguably a few years younger, however, as the United States’ democratic constitution was not signed until 1789. The US is currently listed as the oldest modern democracy according to History.com (oldest in the 18th century to the 21 century).

2. Switzerland

This country had signed its constitution in 1848 and currently operates under 26 administrative regions called “cantons.”

3. New Zealand

New Zealand gained its independence in 1840. Then, the New Zealand Constitution Act came into effect in 1852, which released them from England to set up their own government. The country reportedly became the first self-governing country to ever grant women the right to vote in 1893.

4. Canada

Canada first gained its independence on July 1, 1867, which enabled the country to set up its own government. This occurred upon the passing of the British North America Act. However, it took more than a century for Canada to begin to embrace its independence, a process that is still ongoing—Canada remains a commonwealth of Britain, and did not fully remove extract itself from the UK’s constitutional influence until the Constitution Act, 1982.

5. United Kingdom

While the nations that make up the United Kingdom—Scotland, England and Northern Ireland—have existed for hundreds of years, the current grouping of countries that make up the modern UK was founded relatively recently, in 1922, when most of Ireland broke off to become the independent Irish Free State (which became modern Ireland in 1937). There is significant discourse over the precise date upon which the previous iteration of the UK adopted democracy—some historians date democracy to the Great Reform of 1832, while others cite later reforms in 1867 or 1884.

Additional Long-Lasting Democracies

Depending upon the criteria one uses for qualification, it could be argued that certain additional countries have been democracies for even longer than the countries shown above. Iceland established its democracy centuries before the United States, but that democracy was interrupted by centuries of rule by the Danes and Norwegians. Similarly, the Isle of Man and the Faroe Islands are both long-lived democracies, but are currently dependencies of the UK and Denmark.