Natural Increase by Country 2024

Population increase can happen for a variety of reasons. Sometimes, countries improve healthcare which both lowers infant mortality rates and keeps aging populations alive longer. The UN reports that between 2019 and 2050, life expectancy at birth will increase by over four years, from 72.8 to 77.2.

Migration can also be a factor. Typically, when migration impacts population it is because large groups of refugees are flowing out of one area and into another. This is most likely one cause impacting the shift in Ukraine's population, which is shrinking at a rate of 7.45 percent. While the natural birth rate across all of Europe is below what is needed to maintain a population, Ukraine has also been impacted by the war with Russia, which displaced many of its citizens.

While India and China aren't the fastest-growing countries in the world, their already large populations mean that their population growth rates are particularly interesting to look at. India's current growth rate is 0.81 percent, and for the first time, China's rate has gone negative, meaning that the population is shrinking by 0.02 percent.

These growth rates are modest, but both countries have populations of over 1.4 billion people, making any growth significant. For example, India's population grew by over 13 million people between 2021 and 2022. To put that into perspective there are 156 countries with a total population less than 13 million! Combined with China's small decline, India is now the most populated country in the world. While the two countries currently have similar populations, it is projected that India will grow to 1.67 billion by 2050, significantly outpacing China at 1.3 billion.

Even with a population decline, China will continue to have one of the largest populations in the world. It is projected that in 2030, China will still have over 1.4 billion people. That's over four times as many people as the United States, which has a current population of 339 million and a projected population of 352 million. Even projections for 2050 show China will have a population three times larger than the projection for the United States' projected population of 375 million.